Heating a Home This Winter Will Cost $1,030 on Average, Up 8.7%

Keeping the house warm is becoming another increasingly expensive part of simply owning it.

In its winter heating report, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) projects that the average U.S. household will spend $1,030 on home heating during the 2026–27 winter, up from $948 last winter.

That is an increase of $82, or 8.7%. NEADA notes that the projected increase is more than twice the recent rate of inflation.

An extra $82 over an entire winter does not sound catastrophic on its own. I would not look at it that way.

Homeowners do not pay heating bills in isolation. The same household is also dealing with insurance, property taxes, repairs, mortgage costs, groceries, and everything else.

An $82 increase is simply another expense asking for a little more room in a budget that may already have very little left.

And as usual with housing statistics, the $1,030 average conceals a great deal.

The Average Heating Bill Is Becoming More Expensive

NEADA’s forecast shows considerably different outcomes depending on how a home is heated.

The heating-oil figure is the one that immediately catches my attention.

A projected $548 increase in a single winter is no longer the sort of change most households can absorb by trimming a few miscellaneous expenses. NEADA attributes much of that increase to higher oil prices connected to disruptions in global oil markets.

Electric heat deserves attention too. NEADA expects households relying on electricity to spend about $103 more than last winter.

After years of looking at homeownership costs, I have learned to pay particular attention to expenses that recur automatically.

You can postpone new flooring. You can decide against remodeling the bathroom. You cannot sensibly decide that the house simply will not need heat in January.

A similar priority appears in the latest home repairs versus renovations figures, with necessary repairs far more common than optional renovations.

One Winter Is Not the Whole Story

The 8.7% increase looks more significant when we move beyond a one-year comparison.

According to NEADA, home energy costs are now 23.9% higher than they were during the winter of 2021–22. Electric heating costs have risen 35.7% over that period, and heating-oil costs are up 62.1%.

That is the number I find more troubling.

Homeowners tend to notice large one-time bills because they are painful and obvious. Gradual increases are easier to miss.

An extra $15 here, another $30 there, a larger insurance renewal, higher property taxes, and a utility rate increase can quietly add several thousand dollars to the annual cost of owning the same house.

HOA dues can add another fixed expense. The median monthly HOA fee reached $135 in 2025, equivalent to $1,620 over a full year.

We have already seen the same pattern with rising home insurance costs, which have added another recurring expense to household budgets in recent years.

Some California homeowners also pay temporary wildfire claims surcharges, separate from their regular insurance premiums.

None of these increases requires the homeowner to move, refinance, renovate, or buy anything new. The house simply becomes more expensive to keep.

I Would Be Careful With the $1,030 Average

I like national averages as much as anyone who has spent a career around property data, which is to say I like them when they are used carefully.

Nobody receives a bill from the National Average Utility Company.

Where you live, what fuel you use, the size and age of the house, insulation, heating equipment, thermostat habits, local rates, and winter weather all influence what you actually pay.

NEADA estimates that the average winter heating cost in the Northeast will reach $1,449, about $419 above the national figure. Heating-oil households in the region face particularly high expenses. The Midwest, by comparison, is projected at an average of $924 across fuels.

I saw this type of variation constantly during my appraisal years. Two similarly priced homes could carry remarkably different operating costs.

One might have modern windows, excellent insulation, and an efficient furnace. Another could have an aging heating system, drafty windows, and insulation that should have been upgraded two owners ago.

Market value does not tell you what either home costs to operate.

A Newer Federal Forecast Is Less Pessimistic

There is another reason I would treat $1,030 as a planning figure rather than a promise.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its own 2026–27 Winter Fuels Outlook on October 6, several weeks after NEADA’s September forecast, and its estimates are less severe for several fuels.

EIA expects average winter expenditures to fall about 9% for natural-gas households and 3% for propane users. According to the agency’s Winter Fuels Outlook, electricity costs are projected to rise 4%, with a much larger 21% increase for heating oil.

Forecasts can differ because they use different assumptions about fuel prices, weather, consumption, geography, and when the calculations were made.

I actually find that disagreement useful.

It reminds us that a heating-cost forecast is not a bill sitting unopened on the kitchen counter. Weather alone can change the result substantially.

EIA says its current national forecast assumes roughly similar temperatures to last winter, with considerable regional variation, and its estimates will be updated as winter progresses.

A Warmer Winter Is Providing Some Relief

NEADA’s estimate could have been worse. The organization expects the developing El Niño pattern to produce warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the country, reducing heating demand.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has also reported a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the 2026–27 fall and winter.

The important point is that higher prices are arriving even with weather expected to provide some relief.

That bothers me more than an expensive winter caused entirely by an unusually brutal cold spell.

Weather changes. Structural increases in electricity rates, infrastructure costs, fuel markets, and other recurring expenses have a way of remaining in the household budget.

The Short-Term Energy Outlook currently expects the winter nationally to be slightly warmer than the previous 10-winter average, which should reduce the amount of energy required for heating.

If temperatures surprise us on the cold side, household costs could look quite different.

Lower-Income Households Feel an $82 Increase Differently

Another problem with averages is that the same dollar increase does not mean the same thing to every household.

NEADA estimates that electric and natural-gas expenditures consumed 9.86% of income for households in the lowest income quintile in 2025, compared with just 1.25% for households in the highest quintile. That gap is enormous.

Someone earning a comfortable income can complain about a larger heating bill, pay it, and move on. A household already choosing between utilities, food, transportation, medical expenses, and housing payments has a much harder decision.

NEADA also reports that roughly one in six U.S. households is behind on utility bills, with residential utility debt approaching $23 billion.

To me, that gives the 8.7% increase much more meaning than the percentage itself.

Affordability is not simply a question of what something costs. It is a question of what remains after you pay for it.

Winter Is a Good Time to Look at the House, Not Just the Thermostat

There is only so much a homeowner can do about utility rates or global oil prices.

The part you can influence deserves attention.

I would look at the condition of the heating system, air sealing, insulation, filters, ducts, windows, doors, and any obvious areas where the house is losing heat. I am particularly wary of very old HVAC equipment that is both inefficient and approaching replacement age.

A failing furnace creates an especially unpleasant combination: high operating costs followed by an expensive repair or replacement.

As I discussed when looking at how unexpected repairs affect homeowner budgets, major home and appliance repairs remain the sort of financial shock many households struggle to absorb. Heating equipment is particularly unpleasant because failure tends to become urgent very quickly.

I would rather spend a modest amount servicing a questionable heating system in October than discover what emergency furnace work costs during a freezing January weekend.

No amount of weather stripping will magically erase an 8.7% national increase, of course. Home-efficiency advice becomes silly when it implies homeowners can personally optimize their way out of every increase in energy prices.

Still, reducing wasted heat is one of the few parts of the equation homeowners actually control.

The $1,030 Figure Is Best Used as a Warning

I would not look at NEADA’s $1,030 forecast and immediately add exactly that amount to the household budget. I would use it as a warning to check your own numbers.

Pull out last winter’s bills. Look at the most expensive two or three months. Check whether your utility has announced rate changes. Consider the age and efficiency of the heating equipment. If you use heating oil or propane, pay particular attention to local prices rather than national averages.

Then leave some margin. After decades around houses, I have become rather suspicious of budgets that work perfectly as long as nothing unexpected happens. Homes are very good at providing the unexpected.

An average winter heating bill of $1,030 is noteworthy. An 8.7% annual increase is more noteworthy. The part I would watch most closely, however, is the longer pattern.

When heating, insurance, taxes, maintenance, and repairs all become more expensive at roughly the same time, the real cost of homeownership can rise substantially even when the mortgage payment never changes.

That is the number homeowners need to keep an eye on.